Fundamental events review for Apr 12, 2016

Europe Negotiations between representatives of the Greek government and the Quartet of international lenders were interrupted for a week due to the spring session of the IMF. Athens is talking about progress and continues to count days until April 22 to reach an agreement on the first review of the reforms program. Without a positive assessment of the reform program, Greece will not receive the next loan tranche to service its debt. Meanwhile, in the summer, large payments are approaching which Greece does not sufficient resources to meet. A few days ago, a leak from Wikileaks showed that the IMF was going to drag out negotiations until July so that Greece, faced with the new credit event, would take new austerity measures. The main differences in the negotiations are related to the taxation and pension reform and social security. Greece’s finance minister Euclid Tsakalotos said that there was progress on many topics. However, no agreement has been reached on any of them. Meanwhile, the UK economy has slowed down. A quarterly survey of the British Chamber of Commerce, which assesses the activity of industry and services on the basis of business surveys, indicates a significant slowdown in growth. Domestic demand rose by 11% in the industry from January to March, which is 2% below the previous quarter and is in general the weakest rate since the end of 2012. In the area of ​​services, the indicator fell from 32% to 26%, showing the worst level in two and a half years. The study notes a negative trend in recruitment by British companies. But these statistics had no impact on the British currency in yesterday’s trading. The British pound gained more than one percent and tested the $1.4287 mark. This is due mainly to the increased risk appetite of investors in the background of rising European stock indices. fundamental-ny-j-obzor-12-04-2016 (1) At 11.30 MSK today, a next portion of statistical data on inflation in the UK is pending release, which will undoubtedly affect the movement of the British currency. US In yesterday’s trading, the US dollar showed a negative trend but after a while won back some of the positions lost after falling to a minimum of 17 months against the yen on Monday. It happened after Japan warned that it could make interventions in the foreign exchange market to weaken its currency. The Secretary-General of the Japanese Cabinet Ёsihide Suga said that the G20 agreement on the need to avoid competitive currency devaluation did not mean that Japan could not intervene in the case of one-sided dynamics. Earlier on Monday, the dollar dipped to 107.64 yen, the minimum index since October 2014. In today’s trading, the US dollar is showing a positive trend and is trading near the mark of 108.26 yen. fundamental-ny-j-obzor-12-04-2016 (2) US stocks also closed a little lower on Monday as the drop in the consumer goods sector outweighed growth in the materials sector and banking stocks as investors were getting ready to start what will most likely be a weak season for corporate reporting. As expected, earnings of the S&P 500 companies decreased by 7.7 percent in the first quarter, according to Reuters data. The Dow Jones closed the session down 0.12 percent at 17,556.41 points; S&P 500 was down 0.27 percent at 2,041.99 points; while Nasdaq Composite was down 0.36 percent at 4,833.40 points. Of the ten major industry sectors of S&P, only to the financial and materials sectors closed in positive territory. Oil World oil prices continue to rise against the backdrop of the publication of a drop in the number of drilling rigs in operation and on the eve of talks in Qatar, where a freeze in oil production may be approved. In the course of trading on Monday on the ICE exchange, the price of Brent crude futures rose above $43 for the first time since December 7, 2015. At its maximum value, a barrel of Brent hit $43.06, up 2.67% from the closing level of the previous trading session. At the moment, Brent futures are near the mark of $42.75 per barrel. fundamental-ny-j-obzor-12-04-2016 (3)   The meeting where a freeze on oil production will be discussed will be held in the Qatari capital, Doha, on April 17, 2016. Their participation in the meeting was earlier confirmed by 12 countries, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, Venezuela, Nigeria, Algeria, Indonesia, Ecuador, Bahrain, Oman and Qatar itself. Of Interest — Indian steel company Tata Steel agreed to sell a part of its British investment fund assets Greybull Capital. For over 400 million pounds (500 million euros) the fund will buy the European unit to produce long steel products. It includes the company Tata Steel in the north of England, which employs more than 4,000 people and owns a plant in French Mosel (400 employees). A candidate to buy Tata’s another large factory in Port Talbot in Wales is believed to be Sanjeev Gupta, head of the Liberty House metallurgical holding. This is another 4,000 jobs. Thus, one of the largest steel companies in the world started to carry out a plan to exit from the loss-making UK market. About 40,000 jobs in the British steel industry are directly and indirectly dependent on Tata Steel. Therefore, the British government is under intense pressure ahead of the referendum on the country’s membership in the EU. — Executive Director of German automaker Volkswagen Matthias Mueller intends to significantly reduce the bonuses of top managers, according to several media sources. According to them, the battle should unravel at today’s meeting of the Board of Directors: the largest shareholders, such as the government of the federal state of Lower Saxony, want to keep paying top managers based on last year’s results, despite the fact that the automaker is experiencing a crisis of reputation and financial loss after the «diesel scandal.» According to the German newspaper Bild, board members will be asked to voluntarily reduce their annual bonuses by 30%. The analysis above does not constitute direct trading instructions and is of purely informative nature.

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