Fundamental events review for Apr 5, 2016

Europe Unemployment in the EU fell by 0.1% in February to 10.3%, the level of August 2011. In general, the EU rate stood at 8.9%, the lowest since May 2009. In absolute terms, the Eurostat service reports, 21.6 million people in the EU are unemployed. The lowest level of unemployment – less than 5% – is in Germany and the Czech Republic. The European champions by the number of jobless claims are still Spain (20.4%) and Greece (24%). At the same time, analysts note that since the beginning of 2013, unemployment in the region has been steadily decreasing. fundamental-ny-j-obzor-05-04-2016 (1) Meanwhile, major UK companies are putting off transactions and hiring decisions in anticipation of a referendum on the country’s membership in the European Union, a poll showed on Monday. This is another sign that uncertainty about the future of the UK is putting pressure on the economy. Corporation CFOs are increasingly speaking in favor of the UK’s remaining an EU member, a study by accounting company Deloitte suggests. According to the study, in the first three months of 2016, the number of EU membership supporters among the CFOs of companies included in FTSE 350, as well as other major private corporations, amounted to 75 percent, up from 62 percent in the fourth quarter of 2015. At the same time, 83 percent of respondents reported high or very high degree of uncertainty with regard to the development of business ahead of the referendum, up from 64 percent in late 2015. Prime Minister David Cameron said he intended to hold a referendum on Britain’s membership in the European Union on June 23. The number of hiring decisions and capital expenditures also declined, the company said. UK economic growth slowed towards the end of 2015 but has remained more stable than in many rich countries. According to economists, the referendum’s approach can also lead to slower growth for a certain period of time, but if the UK chooses to leave the EU, the consequences will be much more significant, at least in the short term. Uncertainty around the UK puts pressure on investors. The pair GBP/USD has recently become very volatile, although the US dollar is to blame for this. In yesterday’s trading, the pound gained in value after the news on EU unemployment, testing the $1.4320 mark, but then lost part of conquered positions. Currently, the pair is trading around the level of $1.4245. fundamental-ny-j-obzor-05-04-2016 (1) US Major US stock indexes closed in negative territory on Monday amid falling world oil prices, according to trading session data. Dow Jones Industrial index decreased by 0.31% to 17737 points; NASDAQ index of technology companies declined by 0.46% to 4891.80 points; the wide market index S&P 500 declined by 0.32% to 2066.13 points . fundamental-ny-j-obzor-05-04-2016 (2) Factory orders in the US fell by 1.7% in February, worse than the 1.6% drop analysts had expected. Investors are expecting the release of a new portion of statistical data minutes of the Fed meeting on Wednesday. Earlier on, Friday statistics on the labor market had increased the expectations of an early rate hike by the Fed, although skepticism in the markets persists after excessively soft comments of Chairman Yellen. According to Yellen, the Fed’s March decision to maintain the level of interest rates was justified, and the Fed will continue to proceed with caution. Oil World oil prices fell to the lowest this month on Monday against the backdrop of statements by Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh that Tehran will increase oil production until it reaches the pre-sanctions level. This reduces the chances that the meeting in Doha in mid-April will result in oil exporters agreeing to freeze production. Earlier on, Saudi Arabia said it will not make a move like that without effort on the part of Iran. Meanwhile, the level of production in Russia in March reached a maximum of 30 years –10.9 million barrels per day. Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak can discuss the production freeze and the position of the country with the oil industry minister of the world’s largest oil exporter Saudi Arabia if an opportunity arises, Novak said to journalists on Monday. The Minister also said that he hoped for a consolidated position of oil producers in Doha. Earlier, Oil Minister of Saudi Arabia Riyadh stated that he was ready for dialogue to freeze oil only after Iran froze it. Iran is not going to do that soon. It seems that the oil production situation is coming to a standstill, and that the April 17 is unlikely to result in any agreement. At the moment, Brent crude oil futures are trading around the level of $37.50 per barrel already. fundamental-ny-j-obzor-05-04-2016 (3) Of Interest — On Monday, Cyprus began a new financial life as the international aid action program officially came to an end. In 2013, the EU and the IMF allocated to Cyprus 10 billion euros to overcome the banking crisis. Cyprus scenario was different from those of Greece or Portugal: bank depositors funds were used to rescue the backbone sectors of the economy for the first time in EU history. But in addition, the Cypriot authorities had to agree to carry out structural reforms and reduce budget expenditures. However, the end of the program does not mean that the country will have to abandon austerity. Experts believe that three years ago the crisis in neighboring Greece provoked a collapse of the Cyprus banking system. And the threat remains. At this time, if the leak from Wikileaks deserves any trust at all, the IMF is putting pressure on Greece, Germany and the European Union so that they will quickly come to an agreement and is threatening to withdraw from the aid plan on Athens. However, as the Cyprus finance ministry said a year ago, Cyprus had learned from the crisis and significantly reduced its presence in the Greek financial system to be less dependent on the unstable economic and political situation of its neighbor. — American carrier Alaska Air confirmed it was making inroads to buy its rival Virgin America to expand its positions on the US West Coast. The amount of the deal is $2.6bn. Alaska Air is to pay $57 per share, up 47% higher from the market prices of Virgin America securities. The new operator will be the fifth largest in the US. Lowcoster Virgin America was created by Richard Branson’s Virgin group, but because of US laws, American funds became majority shareholders. The analysis above does not constitute direct trading instructions and is of purely informative nature.

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