Fundamental events review for Apr 7, 2016

Europe Markit Economics released the PMI index numbers for the eurozone on Wednesday, showing a drop in the index to 49.2 in March from 50.1 in February. A reading above 50 indicates an expansion of the sector, while a reading below 50 indicates a contraction. Sales in France and Italy fell in March, while sales in Germany grew. The news did not have much of an impact on the single European currency. It was showing a decline almost up until the evening, but then worked its way back to win lost ground. At the moment, the currency pair EUR/USD is trading close to the strong resistance at the $1.1420 mark. fundamental-ny-j-obzor-07-04-2016 (1) Noteworthy, at 14:30 MSK today, an ECB meeting report dedicated to monetary policy will be released.  To top that off, ECB President Mario Draghi will give a speech at 17:00 GMT. As we already know, the quantitative easing program has been enhanced, and interest rates on loans and deposits have been reduced. In such a short time, economic stimulus policy may not start working, but positive changes can already be seen. ECB President can show today how the measures taken by the Central Bank are working. US The US dollar fell to a minimum of 17 months against the yen on Thursday under pressure from minutes of the Fed meeting, emphasizing a cautious stance on the issue of control over rate hikes. The dollar fell to 109.10 yen, its lowest level against the Japanese currency since October, 2014. The dollar traded at 109.17 yen, down 0.6 percent for the day. fundamental-ny-j-obzor-07-04-2016 (2) The dollar index stopped at the mark of 94.277 points after dropping to 94.239 points, its lowest level since October 2015, the day before. Minutes of the Fed meeting, which reflected the results of the March 15-16 meeting, suggest that the regulator will probably not raise rates until June due to officials’ concerns about the lack of official capacity of the regulator to resist the impact of the global economic slowdown. Oil Oil prices gained almost 5 percent on Wednesday after the US government reported an unexpected drop in stocks last week, while the market expected a new record high. US crude oil reserves fell during the week ended April 1 by 4.94 million barrels to 529.9 million barrels, the Energy Information Administration reported (EIA) on Wednesday. Analysts interviewed by Reuters expected that reserves would reach an eight-week record, rising by 3.2 million barrels. In today’s trading, oil continues to rise. Currently, the US WTI crude oil futures rose to $38.10 per barrel, while Brent futures rose to $40.12 per barrel. fundamental-ny-j-obzor-07-04-2016 (3) The provisional agreement reached in February between the OPEC leader Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and Qatar and the largest of the non-OPEC producers Russia, contributed to the growth in oil prices to $38 per barrel from the 12-year minimum of $27 recorded in January. Meanwhile, in the last few days, oil prices dropped again due to fears that the country will not be able to enter into a larger scale agreement, largely because of Iran said he did not intend to slow down production after removal from international sanctions in January. Of Interest — Profit of the Swedish Hennes & Mauritz in the first quarter of the fiscal year fell by less than expected because of a stronger dollar. The world’s second-largest clothing chain earned SEK 3.3 billion – 356 million euros – up from 500 million euros a year before. Preliminary sales in March rose by only 2%, according to the company’s management. An extra weekend due to Easter and abnormally cold weather are to blame. — One of the world’s most popular mobile messengers announced that it had enabled for all users a system of encryption of correspondence and phone calls, whereby the content of your conversations in a chat will not be seen by anyone except the participants. Even the employees of the company will not have access to the data. WhatsApp, which belongs to Facebook, has about 1 billion active users today. — American pharmaceutical company Pfizer refused to buy the botox producer Allergan. The deal was estimated at $160 billion. The world’s largest pharmaceutical group explained that it was the partners’ «mutual solution» related to new tax measures in the United States. On April 4, the US Treasury proposed to introduce restrictions on corporate transactions involving a change in tax residence. The idea to close the tax loophole belongs to President Obama. We are talking about a situation where a US company buys a foreign company and moves the headquarters to where taxes are lower. That is what would happen in the event of a merger between Pfizer and Allergan. The new company’s tax residency was supposed to be in Ireland where Allergan is registered. Income tax in that country is 12.5%, down from the average 35% in the US. The analysis above does not constitute direct trading instructions and is of purely informative nature

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