Fundamental events review for Apr 8, 2016

Europe The European Central Bank is ready to proceed with the further easing of monetary policy, said the three senior members of the bank, including Chairman Mario Draghi, who supported the Fed’s fears about the uncertainty concerning the outlook on the world economy. In its annual report released on Thursday, the head of the ECB made it clear that 2016 will be another challenging year for the central bank. He stressed that the ECB was faced with uncertainty in relation to the forecast on the world economy, as well as the persistence of deflationary forces. Draghi’s pessimistic mood reflects the position of the Fed’s representatives. Minutes of the March meeting of the American regulator, released Wednesday, read that Fed officials still consider the economic and financial situation in the world to be a risk to the economy. The ECB published minutes of its meeting, also held in March, which resulted in the regulator extending the bond purchase program and announcing a new series of bank financing operations. According to Draghi, «the ECB is not giving up under extremely low inflation,» a statement that could be interpreted as the regulator’s desire to take action. Presumably, the central bank may reconsider the bond purchase program or choose other measures. According to Draghi, the ECB’s quantitative easing program should speed up the eurozone’s GDP growth by about 1.5 percentage points in the period from 2015 to 2018. ECB Vice President Vitor Constancio supported the opinion of the head of the regulator, but noted that other officials, particularly in the country’s government, must make efforts to support growth. Against the background of these events, the euro retreated from the six-month high of $1.1453 against the dollar and approached the session low of $1.1338 over the course of the session. As of now, the single European currency fell 0.18 percent to the $1.1363 mark. fundamental-ny-j-obzor-08-04-2016 (1) Investors are likely to prepare for the possibility of softening of the ECB position, given the recent rise in the euro, said Omar Eziner of Commonwealth Foreign Exchange in Washington. US The US dollar fell below 108 yen during trading on Thursday for the first time in 17 months against the backdrop of a persistent view that an intervention by Bank of Japan is unlikely. The US currency fell more than 1.8 percent against the yen to 107.64 yen – the lowest level since the end of October, 2014. In today’s trading, the dollar took back part of the lost ground and is trading close to the 108.77 mark. According to analysts, the Japanese central bank is not giving any indications about planned interventions to halt the yen’s rise. fundamental-ny-j-obzor-08-04-2016 (2) Head of the Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda said in a quarterly meeting of the managers of the central bank’s regional branches that the regulator was prepared to further lower interest rates if needed or expand the asset buyback effort to achieve the 2 per cent inflation target. However, in his opinion, the Japanese economy continues to maintain a moderate recovery trend. The dollar index, which tracks the US currency against a basket of six major rivals, is trading without noticeable changes around the level of 94.566, up from a nearly six-week minimum of 94.015. Oil Iran intends to regain its share of the oil market after the lifting of sanctions as a result of transactions involving the six countries, the Iranian Tasnim agency said with reference to the Foreign Minister of Iran. «Iran wants to regain its position on the oil market … in cooperation with other oil-producing countries,» said Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif after a meeting in Baku with his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov and the head of the Azerbaijani Ministry of Foreign Affairs Elmar Mammadyarov. Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said this week that Iran had confirmed their participation in the oil-producing countries meeting in Doha on April 17, where a freeze on oil output rate will be discussed. Iran has repeatedly stated that it is ready to freeze production after reaching a level of 4 million barrels per day. In spite of this, the price of Brent crude oil is increasing during Friday’s trading. As of 9:17 today, the price rose by 0.62% to $40.02 per barrel. fundamental-ny-j-obzor-08-04-2016 (3) Of Interest — The United States became a magnet for global capital in recent months. UBS Bank has prepared a map of global capital movements. As the primary data source, the analysts used the reporting documents of ETF-funds (open-end investment funds). Funds investing in the US stock market recorded a largest inflow of capital: $20.9bn. As believed by the bank’s analysts, this is due to the fact that the Fed has taken an extremely soft stance on raising the key rate, and the situation in the oil market has stabilized. The rally in commodity markets also triggered a sharp increase in inflows into funds that invest in developing countries, such as Brazil ($ 0.5 billion), China ($ 0.5 billion), India ($ 0.3 billion) and Russia ($ 0.1 billion). At the same time, funds investing in European markets faced a record outflow of cash: $0.9 billion. Foremost, investors withdrew money from the funds specializing in the securities of German companies. — Marks & Spencer cannot attract buyers: Britain’s biggest retail network’s sales fell by 1.9% from January to March, with the exception of the grocery business, which recorded an increase of 4%. However, experts had expected a drop of 5.8%. The emergence of data for the last quarter of the financial year coincided with a change in leadership: CEO Marc Bolland was replaced by Steve Rowe, who had worked at Marks & Spencer for 26 years. — The controlling agency for the UK financial market has sent to banks and other organizations a demand to check whether they or their clients’ business have ties to the registrar of Panamanian offshore companies Mossack Fonseca. The company became known for the scandal surrounding the publication of the «Panama papers.» Letters were received by about 20 companies, the regulator obliging them to find such ties, if any, and report on them within a week April 15. The authors of the journalist investigation studied the Panamanian company database to discover five hundred banks and their subsidiaries that have helped customers open 15,600 offshore companies in Panama and other tax-exempt zones. The list includes the structures of the HSBC Bank. The analysis above does not constitute direct trading instructions and is of purely informative nature

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