The Pimco called the 4 major risk for China’s economy

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In the long term, China’s economy seems bleak, despite the fact that Beijing reported that the threat of «drawdown» does not exist, and growth should be around 7 per cent. But analysts do not agree with this fact. The official GDP growth will range 5.5 -6.5 percent, says Luc Spadzhich, portfolio manager at Pimco. In addition, he calls the 4 key risk to the Chinese economy. Do not repay loans At the end of 2015 the share of problem loans amounted to 1.4% and is likely to continue to rise in the coming 3-5 years. Internal stress testing Chinese banks, according to Pimco opinion suggests that this ratio will peak in the region of 6%. In addition, large-scale capital injections into the banking system — is unlikely, as in this and next year. debts Since 2007, China’s debt exceeds 21 trillion dollars, which is approximately one-third of the world total, assures Spadzhich. Also worried by the fact that the increase, which falls on every new dollar of debt is now declining. If nominal GDP grows in line with the official aim of this year, China will need to add at least 15% of debt to GDP. Real estate market Investing in real estate will continue to slow economic growth, despite the fact that prices have to be completed in 2016 with positive indicators of an increase. Meanwhile, the real estate market is not exactly will be the engine of growth in the short term. Stock market In 2015, the market has lost 15 percent. China’s stock market is the second largest in the world by market capitalization, despite the fact that interventions and experiments as part of monetary policy could not calm the turbulence. «Against the backdrop of volatility, the Chinese securities may enter in the index MSCI emerging markets at the end of the year», — considers Spadzhich.

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